Thursday, November 20, 2008
Best Guess Update
Apologies for the recent inactivity. We're tied up in some business of late but hope to resume posting by next week. Thanks for your patience. Cheers
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Bad Debt: the Next Wave
There are thousands of municipalities across the nation that issue municipal bonds (muni's) to fund everything from garbage collection to school systems. In general, the local boards who approve and review the issuance of these localized debt issues are comprised of plain town folk acting in good will. A local attorney representing the town works with the more sophisticated bankers, underwriters, rating agencies and big city attorneys whose firms specialize in muni bond issuance. And this system works well.
But, sometime in the past decade, things began to change. Suddenly, the managers of town budgets, pension and retirement funds, and other normally sane fiduciaries decided that the normal, prudent market instrument yields weren't sufficient to match the increasing outflows of funds from the various plans. Tax receipts which had been pushed to the hilt on town properties and residences, no longer could match the expenditure outflows. Unless a magic bullet on rates of investment portfolio returns could be found, the plans would go broke. Now, small town America looked aggressively to the rate-of-return hot shots on Wall Street for the answer and the slippery slope of derivatives was ascended. The hyped rate-of-return game began in earnest.
Today across the nation, there are millions of muni's in creeping jeopardy of default. Many small towns wait unsuspectingly to discover that the school improvement bonds they approved and issued are headed towards "0" bid. Thanks to the naive chase for ridiculously high returns on portfolios, the collapse of CDO's and other Dr. Strangelove concoctions, many taxpayers are due for a Main Street shock for which there can be no bail out.
And what will the financial wizards say? Well, they will say look to the administrators and actuaries of the many pension and retirement funds. Look to your own town council and your local attorney. Look to your underwriters and their experts. And look to the demands made on Wall Street gurus to come up with riskier and riskier schemes to get you all the ever-climbing rates of return to keep filling your leaky boat. After all, we pro's did what you taxpayers demanded. That would be their answer.
Bob the gas station owner and Beth the librarian who sit on the school board better learn quick. When the Treasury only pays 5% on a 30-year bond, how can Wall Street promise 15%? Better learn. And in the meantime, duck.
John
But, sometime in the past decade, things began to change. Suddenly, the managers of town budgets, pension and retirement funds, and other normally sane fiduciaries decided that the normal, prudent market instrument yields weren't sufficient to match the increasing outflows of funds from the various plans. Tax receipts which had been pushed to the hilt on town properties and residences, no longer could match the expenditure outflows. Unless a magic bullet on rates of investment portfolio returns could be found, the plans would go broke. Now, small town America looked aggressively to the rate-of-return hot shots on Wall Street for the answer and the slippery slope of derivatives was ascended. The hyped rate-of-return game began in earnest.
Today across the nation, there are millions of muni's in creeping jeopardy of default. Many small towns wait unsuspectingly to discover that the school improvement bonds they approved and issued are headed towards "0" bid. Thanks to the naive chase for ridiculously high returns on portfolios, the collapse of CDO's and other Dr. Strangelove concoctions, many taxpayers are due for a Main Street shock for which there can be no bail out.
And what will the financial wizards say? Well, they will say look to the administrators and actuaries of the many pension and retirement funds. Look to your own town council and your local attorney. Look to your underwriters and their experts. And look to the demands made on Wall Street gurus to come up with riskier and riskier schemes to get you all the ever-climbing rates of return to keep filling your leaky boat. After all, we pro's did what you taxpayers demanded. That would be their answer.
Bob the gas station owner and Beth the librarian who sit on the school board better learn quick. When the Treasury only pays 5% on a 30-year bond, how can Wall Street promise 15%? Better learn. And in the meantime, duck.
John
Friday, November 07, 2008
National Disgrace: the American Pay Scale
President-elect Barack Obama will be paid around $250,000 per year.
Lakers star Kobe Bryant gets paid about $215,000 per game under his current contract.
Anything wrong with this equation?
In these days of economic trial and salary distortions, the untouched suckers game is national sports.
You can't look at any players' uniform without seeing a merchandiser's logo, be it Nike or Reebok or Under Armour or whomever. You can't review most college or university brochures without being blinded by the emphasis on the sports program.
Wonder why the US education system is ranked near the bottom among international competitors?
I took great pleasure in learning recently that Rutgers and Oklahoma State universities were having difficulty in completing their new, expanding football venues due to a growing drop off in alumni and sponsor contributions. Certainly, the building up of the science and engineering projects wouldn't suffer the same fate. Oh, wait on a minute. There is no such program to compare with the all-encompassing sports programs! (I write this as a fan of college sports but not of the overwhelming stature they've been allowed to attain. As if a place of higher learning's only contribution to our young or society were sports entertainment.)
In the old days, I paid $3.50 for my box seat at Shea Stadium and $5.00 for my end zone seat at Madison Square Garden. Joe Namath got a rich $400,000 a year and Rod Gilbert got $65,000, and their play was better than what we have today when the "gods" of sport receive millions, on par only with the now-despised CEOs of Wall Street.
In this week's financial roller coaster ride I'm waiting for some of the millions of sports facility bonds to start defaulting as cash-strapped municipalities around this country decide that water and hospitals provide a greater public taxpayer service than how much bling your favorite local sports primadonna can show off or how necessary that new stadium is for, what exactly? A beer holder on every seat? More revenue for the team owners or school administration?
At the end of the 1967 pro football season when the Green Bay Packers won the NFL championship, a team manager said to his players, "You all earned your pay today!" The bottom-line obsessed agents of today weren't around then. Nike wasn't emblazoned on the uniform. Luxury boxes were orange crates in the aisles.
Those days are gone and so is their sporting ethic and perspective, traded away for so many pieces of silver. Or was it a seat license at the new Giants stadium, which doesn't even guarantee you the seat at all?
John
Lakers star Kobe Bryant gets paid about $215,000 per game under his current contract.
Anything wrong with this equation?
In these days of economic trial and salary distortions, the untouched suckers game is national sports.
You can't look at any players' uniform without seeing a merchandiser's logo, be it Nike or Reebok or Under Armour or whomever. You can't review most college or university brochures without being blinded by the emphasis on the sports program.
Wonder why the US education system is ranked near the bottom among international competitors?
I took great pleasure in learning recently that Rutgers and Oklahoma State universities were having difficulty in completing their new, expanding football venues due to a growing drop off in alumni and sponsor contributions. Certainly, the building up of the science and engineering projects wouldn't suffer the same fate. Oh, wait on a minute. There is no such program to compare with the all-encompassing sports programs! (I write this as a fan of college sports but not of the overwhelming stature they've been allowed to attain. As if a place of higher learning's only contribution to our young or society were sports entertainment.)
In the old days, I paid $3.50 for my box seat at Shea Stadium and $5.00 for my end zone seat at Madison Square Garden. Joe Namath got a rich $400,000 a year and Rod Gilbert got $65,000, and their play was better than what we have today when the "gods" of sport receive millions, on par only with the now-despised CEOs of Wall Street.
In this week's financial roller coaster ride I'm waiting for some of the millions of sports facility bonds to start defaulting as cash-strapped municipalities around this country decide that water and hospitals provide a greater public taxpayer service than how much bling your favorite local sports primadonna can show off or how necessary that new stadium is for, what exactly? A beer holder on every seat? More revenue for the team owners or school administration?
At the end of the 1967 pro football season when the Green Bay Packers won the NFL championship, a team manager said to his players, "You all earned your pay today!" The bottom-line obsessed agents of today weren't around then. Nike wasn't emblazoned on the uniform. Luxury boxes were orange crates in the aisles.
Those days are gone and so is their sporting ethic and perspective, traded away for so many pieces of silver. Or was it a seat license at the new Giants stadium, which doesn't even guarantee you the seat at all?
John
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
A Night For America
For tonight, I repost an edited version of what I wrote on the occasion of Barack Obama's clinching of the Democratic presidential nomination. I hope it does some justice to Tuesday's historic event.
John's been the Obama enthusiast on this site, so if he'll pardon me for a moment I'm going to write a bit about this moment in American history, and it is a bi-partisan moment that should be recognised by all Americans whether they agree with Senator Barack Obama's policies or not.
November 4, 2008 will be one of those dates my children will learn about in history class, the day America elected the first man of colour to be the President of the United States. It must also be remembered that if circumstances were different, it would be the first woman Vice-President of the United States, an equally historic watershed that will have to wait a little longer.
The roads paved in blood and sweat that have led to this day cannot be appreciated, I think, right now, at the end of a marathon election that has captured the nation's and world's attention.
It is fate's fortune that some of the same men who preached and marched alongside Dr. King are still here, witnesses to a lifetime that began with the black man not equal to the white man and all forms of violence and degradation being just a fact of life and has evolved from that reality to one where an American boy of a black father and a white mother, growing up in Hawaii, Indonesia and the Northeast before making his life on the South Side of Chicago, can run for president and actually win.
And it is a credit to Obama and this country that at the end of the 18-month Democratic campaign and the highest profile presidential race, arguably, in American history, the deciding factor for voters and the substance of all the questions coming his way aren't about the colour of his skin but what he believes is the best way to make the United States better.
Perhaps fate has also stepped in to bring Senator John McCain and Barack Obama together, for the Republican contender may not be shattering any glass ceilings but he has also battled and broken through partisan barriers to get the nomination. And politics aside, his selection of Governor Sarah Palin added even more history to an already historic race.
Whether it was his willingness to legislate regardless of the party agenda or his upstart run to the front of the 2000 pack when party fathers were grooming the son of a former president or the hostile rift he has had with the GOP's religious and conservative wings or even his age, Senator McCain defied odds and a large field to come back from the wilderness and make this race better for it.
To the credit of both nominees, theirs were campaigns heavy on the issues. And with this man of colour ascending to the presidency, it is clear and decisive that Americans have chosen him for his views over those his rival's and not because he is a 'first.'
On this night, Republicans too should celebrate even though they and Obama agree on little and everything.
Without Republicans like Senator Everett Dirksen (IL), Barack Obama could not have achieved what he did tonight.
Without a Republican, one of the first, like Abraham Lincoln, Martin Luther King Jr. couldn't have had his march on that president's memorial.
The blood-soaked road from 'all men are created equal' to 'I do solemnly swear...' is one built upon an American foundation, Democrat, Republican and all those parties that have come and gone over a 232 year history. And it has taken every one of those 232 years and every life given, every life made harder in the name of equality, to arrive at this moment.
And on this night, the legacy of what has become belongs to all but if there is one - of many - who deserves special recognition it is Abraham Lincoln, Republican, whose legacy transcends politics and represents a direct link from the greatest of the unfinished work by the men of 1776 now one step closer to completion, that, indeed, 'all men are created equal' and finally.
Reilly
--
John's been the Obama enthusiast on this site, so if he'll pardon me for a moment I'm going to write a bit about this moment in American history, and it is a bi-partisan moment that should be recognised by all Americans whether they agree with Senator Barack Obama's policies or not.
November 4, 2008 will be one of those dates my children will learn about in history class, the day America elected the first man of colour to be the President of the United States. It must also be remembered that if circumstances were different, it would be the first woman Vice-President of the United States, an equally historic watershed that will have to wait a little longer.
The roads paved in blood and sweat that have led to this day cannot be appreciated, I think, right now, at the end of a marathon election that has captured the nation's and world's attention.
It is fate's fortune that some of the same men who preached and marched alongside Dr. King are still here, witnesses to a lifetime that began with the black man not equal to the white man and all forms of violence and degradation being just a fact of life and has evolved from that reality to one where an American boy of a black father and a white mother, growing up in Hawaii, Indonesia and the Northeast before making his life on the South Side of Chicago, can run for president and actually win.
And it is a credit to Obama and this country that at the end of the 18-month Democratic campaign and the highest profile presidential race, arguably, in American history, the deciding factor for voters and the substance of all the questions coming his way aren't about the colour of his skin but what he believes is the best way to make the United States better.
Perhaps fate has also stepped in to bring Senator John McCain and Barack Obama together, for the Republican contender may not be shattering any glass ceilings but he has also battled and broken through partisan barriers to get the nomination. And politics aside, his selection of Governor Sarah Palin added even more history to an already historic race.
Whether it was his willingness to legislate regardless of the party agenda or his upstart run to the front of the 2000 pack when party fathers were grooming the son of a former president or the hostile rift he has had with the GOP's religious and conservative wings or even his age, Senator McCain defied odds and a large field to come back from the wilderness and make this race better for it.
To the credit of both nominees, theirs were campaigns heavy on the issues. And with this man of colour ascending to the presidency, it is clear and decisive that Americans have chosen him for his views over those his rival's and not because he is a 'first.'
On this night, Republicans too should celebrate even though they and Obama agree on little and everything.
Without Republicans like Senator Everett Dirksen (IL), Barack Obama could not have achieved what he did tonight.
Without a Republican, one of the first, like Abraham Lincoln, Martin Luther King Jr. couldn't have had his march on that president's memorial.
The blood-soaked road from 'all men are created equal' to 'I do solemnly swear...' is one built upon an American foundation, Democrat, Republican and all those parties that have come and gone over a 232 year history. And it has taken every one of those 232 years and every life given, every life made harder in the name of equality, to arrive at this moment.
And on this night, the legacy of what has become belongs to all but if there is one - of many - who deserves special recognition it is Abraham Lincoln, Republican, whose legacy transcends politics and represents a direct link from the greatest of the unfinished work by the men of 1776 now one step closer to completion, that, indeed, 'all men are created equal' and finally.
Reilly
Monday, November 03, 2008
Campaign 2008: Genesis to Revelations
For this Election Day, we thought a look back at our coverage of the race from start to finish might not be a bad idea. Hope you, fair reader, get something out of all these hours of watching the campaigns so you don't have to. Cheers
19 June, 2007, Return of the Third Party? - Looking back, it seems naive of myself and numerous others to have thought 2008 would feature some sort of replay of 1992 with a legitimate third party ticket. That said, the rampant speculation on what New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Al Gore and retiring Senator Chuck Hagel (R) might do if so inclined led to weeks upon weeks of bylines gameplanning what one of these figures jumping into the race would do.
30 August, 2007, The End of the Revolution? - From the heights of 2002-04 to the late-breaking Mark Foley page scandal, the Republican Party built by Reagan and Newt Gingrich saw its tide advance as far as it could under the right-man, right-moment leadership of George W. Bush and recede to its lowest point in the same 8-year period. Starting in 2006 and continuing into 2008, back-to-back Democratic 1994's will have reversed years of brick-by-brick foundation laying by the GOP for a hoped-for lasting majority.
20 September, 2007, Does Hillary have the Democratic nomination locked up? - Even before the Halloween '07 debate that revealed a crack in the Clinton machine dam and could be said was the first sign of her ultimate failure to attain the nomination, there was talk among campaigners that the Clinton operation and her image as the unbeatable heavyweight was ripe for a fall.
30 October, 2007, The Eighth Democratic Presidential Debate: Analysis - The moment that changed the '08 race, Hillary Clinton's evasive, nuanced answer on New York state driver's licenses for illegal immigrant, came near the end and capped off a night of attack-the-frontrunner.
10 December, 2007, Down the Stretch, New Leaders Or Just Teases? - Closing in on the official start to the 2008 presidential campaign, the state of the race in December was as different from the race of the first debates in April and May as was the race of January different from both, when the frontrunner changed after each state voted. Barack Obama was the fashionable choice approaching the New Year and John McCain was nowhere to be found until he rose again after Iowa blessed Mike Huckabee.
31 December, 2007, Enough Foreign Policy Already - One of John's pet peeves, aimless and abusive spending, received full airing here. The idea of politicians proposing billions in programs and continued indefinite fighting Iraq without outlining how they're going to pay for it is an area he watched closely throughout the campaign. At the time, John concluded 'not one' of the candidates would be a 'change' from the status quo. After the credit collapse and specified policies of Barack Obama's and the Democratic Party's, John may have changed his verdict.
3 January, 2008, Obama Impresses, Huckabee Caps Late Gains in Iowa - The 2008 Iowa Primary and Caucus put to rest the endless speculation with actual votes. Mike Huckabee was this year's Cinderella, his fledgling crowning turning back into a pumpkin before Super Tuesday. And the Democratic side will be remembered for, more than anything, the first official sign that Hillary Clinton's campaign wasn't the winner everyone expected.
3 January, 2008, Obama Rising - John wrote eloquently of Obama the symbol as everyone wondered whether this guy was for real or just a flash in the pan like so many before him have been in Iowa.
8 January, 2008 - New Hampshire: the ABC and FOX News Debates - Three debates sandwiched between a Thursday Iowa vote and Tuesday New Hampshire vote made for fourth quarter scrambling like one wouldn't believe. Leading contender Mitt Romney took a licking in the Saturday debate and game back with gusto in the Sunday debate, while Hillary Clinton let slip an insight into her inner thoughts and Barack Obama looked legitimate and not another Howard Dean. John McCain had still yet to assert himself even though he was the presumptive winner in New Hampshire in just 48 hours.
6 February, 2008, What a Diff'rence A Day Makes - The day after Super Tuesday cleared some things up and left others exactly as they were. John McCain unofficially sealed the deal on the Republican nomination in what seemed such an easy and commanding way after Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani were all thought to be shoe-ins at one time or another just weeks before. Maybe Mitt Romney wasn't the darling of conservatives some, and I, thought he was after Sarah Palin came along in August. As a prospective presidential contender, however, four years of life out of the limelight might position him nicely along with Palin for 2012. On the Democratic side, Tuesday the 5th would kick off the battle for delegates and the dreaded 'super delegates.' It would drag on into May but with every February primary or caucus victory for Barack Obama, the talk grew louder and louder of a contested convention in Denver. Hillary Clinton, undergoing a crisis of message and performance, would struggle during this time to find herself in time to make this possibility a reality instead of a pipe dream of those loyal to Clinton and those just-not-sure about this Obama fella.
7 February, 2008, A House Divided - John McCain visits the Conservative Political Action Committee in his first test of 'the base' waters. If only the McCain I described, that everyone knew of and for the most part ran a successful campaign in the primaries, had stayed with voters in the general election, we could be having a very different election.
28 February, 2008, Echoes of Floyd - In the tradition of classy men of color and character, John wrote that Barack Obama was the latest name to be added to this exclusive and admirable club. The example he sets for future generations at this early date, he wrote, makes Obama well worthy of such statue.
7 April, 2008, Somehow 'Bored To Tears' Just Doesn't Quite Say It - Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama weren't done yet but already there were signs of what the general election would be like. Clinton told a yarn about running from imaginary snipers in Bosnia. Obama read so far between the lines he almost fell through when he said John McCain wanted 100 years of war in Iraq. McCain mixed up shi'i's in Iraq with Al-Qa'ida and deferred way too publicly to Alan Greenspan on economics. The race up until that point had been all about the candidates themselves, not their policies. I wrote of my hope that these moments were just campaign-lag. I was wrong.
20 April, 2008, Grand Theft USA - John wrote on the topic of black-hole spending again that the (shocking!) revelation of some retired military officials working as de facto lobbyists with the Pentagon while engaging in private sector jobs and media analysis just goes to show how desperately the nation needed Washington to be reformed, a central theme of the general election.
28 April, 2008, The Man, Not the Message - At the peak of the furor surrounding Reverend Jeremiah Wright and his relationship with Barack Obama, the pastor spoke at a religious conference in Washington and took on his critics directly, in front of national cameras. This was the low point of Obama's campaign. I wrote then that as far as I was concerned, Wright could say what he wanted as an American, just as any other preacher, no matter how offensive to some, can. But what he had failed to do was provide the understanding he said his faith required of true believers when he branded all critics white racists and ignorant people who are against black liberation theology.
12 May, 2008, The Audacity of Expectations - John McCain and Barack Obama campaigned early on with the message that they wanted to elevate politics from the gutter of personal attacks and partisan bickering. I'd say they've largely failed to live up to that promise and wrote so then. The 2008 general election has been more civil and dignified than those in the recent past, but it still got into the muck and grime every campaign lowers itself into, and it got pretty dirty in the end, moreso on the part of McCain's campaign.
22 May, 2008, Voter Disconnect - The propensity of voters to be more tribal in their voting habits, some times bringing them to vote for preservation of morality rather than risky advancement, was hit on by John. Debate on why white voters in Kentucky and West Virginia voted for Hillary Clinton in spite of Barack Obama's unofficially locked-up nomination led some to cry racism. Or, perhaps, it was Clinton's return to the New Hampshire campaigning style that gave her her best moment of the race when she teared up talking to a voter in a diner that swung late states to her.
5 June, 2008, Cam-Pain '08: Bias, Clinton and Shooting the Messenger - The media was, once again, the unofficial third party to the presidential campaigns in 2008. At times an ally - blunt instrument is more like it - of candidates and other times a scourge to run against, the media took its knocks, some deservedly but many just a part of the annual ritual. I used Hillary Clinton's campaign as an example of how this relationship can work and, in her case, an example of how message management can backfire if you go to the well one too many times as a casus belli of your candidacy.
03 September, 2008, Now we have a race - The Sarah Palin pick came out of the blue. She was met with tremendous skepticism and a lot of criticism from Democrats. At the convention, she answered them all and showed, at the very least, she could dish it out just as well as she could take it. Whether she will help John McCain or make a good vice-president are lingering questions we'll know more about tomorrow night - I hope tomorrow night.
25 September, 2008, John and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day - John wrote the credit crisis and the sideshow in Congressional negotiations on the 'bailout bill' made for an arguably unwinnable choice for John McCain. The alternative plan conservatives were holding out for was rubbish, he wrote, and based on distorted or outright falsehoods of economics. Ultimately, the Paulson Plan was approved but confidence was certainly shaken by a significant bi-partisan revolt.
29 September, 2008, McCain-Palin '08: Campaign First - Ever the critic of John McCain, John wrote that McCain's choice of Sarah Palin for vice-president and the campaign he's run since getting the nomination amount to a summary judgement on his judgement. McCain will not win on Election Day, John believes, precisely because his judgement has shown that he has allowed running a successful campaign to overshadow running one with integrity and honor.
21 October, 2008, Cam-Pain '08: About those promises... - Like my post 'The Audacity of Expectations,' I wrote then that both campaigns had failed to live up to their promises of clean, dignified campaigns. In particular, the use of personal attacks has become so ingrained in political campaigning that it is almost knee-jerk policy. Maybe in 2012, the incumbent and the challenger can make cutting out personal attacks, much like John McCain's legislative pork, a priority.
29 October, 2008, In defense of a friend - The day that the election hit close to home, the McCain campaign used a family friend and respected professor as an opening to hit Barack Obama on his controversial association with William Ayers, his criticised history of shady friends and the bias of the 'liberal media' against John McCain. There was no basis for the attack of Rashid Khalidi but as part of a closing argument against Obama demonstrated the desperation in the McCain campaign to gain any sort of momentum going into 4 November.
Now, get out and vote. It doesn't matter who, just exercise your right.
19 June, 2007, Return of the Third Party? - Looking back, it seems naive of myself and numerous others to have thought 2008 would feature some sort of replay of 1992 with a legitimate third party ticket. That said, the rampant speculation on what New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Al Gore and retiring Senator Chuck Hagel (R) might do if so inclined led to weeks upon weeks of bylines gameplanning what one of these figures jumping into the race would do.
30 August, 2007, The End of the Revolution? - From the heights of 2002-04 to the late-breaking Mark Foley page scandal, the Republican Party built by Reagan and Newt Gingrich saw its tide advance as far as it could under the right-man, right-moment leadership of George W. Bush and recede to its lowest point in the same 8-year period. Starting in 2006 and continuing into 2008, back-to-back Democratic 1994's will have reversed years of brick-by-brick foundation laying by the GOP for a hoped-for lasting majority.
20 September, 2007, Does Hillary have the Democratic nomination locked up? - Even before the Halloween '07 debate that revealed a crack in the Clinton machine dam and could be said was the first sign of her ultimate failure to attain the nomination, there was talk among campaigners that the Clinton operation and her image as the unbeatable heavyweight was ripe for a fall.
30 October, 2007, The Eighth Democratic Presidential Debate: Analysis - The moment that changed the '08 race, Hillary Clinton's evasive, nuanced answer on New York state driver's licenses for illegal immigrant, came near the end and capped off a night of attack-the-frontrunner.
10 December, 2007, Down the Stretch, New Leaders Or Just Teases? - Closing in on the official start to the 2008 presidential campaign, the state of the race in December was as different from the race of the first debates in April and May as was the race of January different from both, when the frontrunner changed after each state voted. Barack Obama was the fashionable choice approaching the New Year and John McCain was nowhere to be found until he rose again after Iowa blessed Mike Huckabee.
31 December, 2007, Enough Foreign Policy Already - One of John's pet peeves, aimless and abusive spending, received full airing here. The idea of politicians proposing billions in programs and continued indefinite fighting Iraq without outlining how they're going to pay for it is an area he watched closely throughout the campaign. At the time, John concluded 'not one' of the candidates would be a 'change' from the status quo. After the credit collapse and specified policies of Barack Obama's and the Democratic Party's, John may have changed his verdict.
3 January, 2008, Obama Impresses, Huckabee Caps Late Gains in Iowa - The 2008 Iowa Primary and Caucus put to rest the endless speculation with actual votes. Mike Huckabee was this year's Cinderella, his fledgling crowning turning back into a pumpkin before Super Tuesday. And the Democratic side will be remembered for, more than anything, the first official sign that Hillary Clinton's campaign wasn't the winner everyone expected.
3 January, 2008, Obama Rising - John wrote eloquently of Obama the symbol as everyone wondered whether this guy was for real or just a flash in the pan like so many before him have been in Iowa.
8 January, 2008 - New Hampshire: the ABC and FOX News Debates - Three debates sandwiched between a Thursday Iowa vote and Tuesday New Hampshire vote made for fourth quarter scrambling like one wouldn't believe. Leading contender Mitt Romney took a licking in the Saturday debate and game back with gusto in the Sunday debate, while Hillary Clinton let slip an insight into her inner thoughts and Barack Obama looked legitimate and not another Howard Dean. John McCain had still yet to assert himself even though he was the presumptive winner in New Hampshire in just 48 hours.
6 February, 2008, What a Diff'rence A Day Makes - The day after Super Tuesday cleared some things up and left others exactly as they were. John McCain unofficially sealed the deal on the Republican nomination in what seemed such an easy and commanding way after Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani were all thought to be shoe-ins at one time or another just weeks before. Maybe Mitt Romney wasn't the darling of conservatives some, and I, thought he was after Sarah Palin came along in August. As a prospective presidential contender, however, four years of life out of the limelight might position him nicely along with Palin for 2012. On the Democratic side, Tuesday the 5th would kick off the battle for delegates and the dreaded 'super delegates.' It would drag on into May but with every February primary or caucus victory for Barack Obama, the talk grew louder and louder of a contested convention in Denver. Hillary Clinton, undergoing a crisis of message and performance, would struggle during this time to find herself in time to make this possibility a reality instead of a pipe dream of those loyal to Clinton and those just-not-sure about this Obama fella.
7 February, 2008, A House Divided - John McCain visits the Conservative Political Action Committee in his first test of 'the base' waters. If only the McCain I described, that everyone knew of and for the most part ran a successful campaign in the primaries, had stayed with voters in the general election, we could be having a very different election.
28 February, 2008, Echoes of Floyd - In the tradition of classy men of color and character, John wrote that Barack Obama was the latest name to be added to this exclusive and admirable club. The example he sets for future generations at this early date, he wrote, makes Obama well worthy of such statue.
7 April, 2008, Somehow 'Bored To Tears' Just Doesn't Quite Say It - Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama weren't done yet but already there were signs of what the general election would be like. Clinton told a yarn about running from imaginary snipers in Bosnia. Obama read so far between the lines he almost fell through when he said John McCain wanted 100 years of war in Iraq. McCain mixed up shi'i's in Iraq with Al-Qa'ida and deferred way too publicly to Alan Greenspan on economics. The race up until that point had been all about the candidates themselves, not their policies. I wrote of my hope that these moments were just campaign-lag. I was wrong.
20 April, 2008, Grand Theft USA - John wrote on the topic of black-hole spending again that the (shocking!) revelation of some retired military officials working as de facto lobbyists with the Pentagon while engaging in private sector jobs and media analysis just goes to show how desperately the nation needed Washington to be reformed, a central theme of the general election.
28 April, 2008, The Man, Not the Message - At the peak of the furor surrounding Reverend Jeremiah Wright and his relationship with Barack Obama, the pastor spoke at a religious conference in Washington and took on his critics directly, in front of national cameras. This was the low point of Obama's campaign. I wrote then that as far as I was concerned, Wright could say what he wanted as an American, just as any other preacher, no matter how offensive to some, can. But what he had failed to do was provide the understanding he said his faith required of true believers when he branded all critics white racists and ignorant people who are against black liberation theology.
12 May, 2008, The Audacity of Expectations - John McCain and Barack Obama campaigned early on with the message that they wanted to elevate politics from the gutter of personal attacks and partisan bickering. I'd say they've largely failed to live up to that promise and wrote so then. The 2008 general election has been more civil and dignified than those in the recent past, but it still got into the muck and grime every campaign lowers itself into, and it got pretty dirty in the end, moreso on the part of McCain's campaign.
22 May, 2008, Voter Disconnect - The propensity of voters to be more tribal in their voting habits, some times bringing them to vote for preservation of morality rather than risky advancement, was hit on by John. Debate on why white voters in Kentucky and West Virginia voted for Hillary Clinton in spite of Barack Obama's unofficially locked-up nomination led some to cry racism. Or, perhaps, it was Clinton's return to the New Hampshire campaigning style that gave her her best moment of the race when she teared up talking to a voter in a diner that swung late states to her.
5 June, 2008, Cam-Pain '08: Bias, Clinton and Shooting the Messenger - The media was, once again, the unofficial third party to the presidential campaigns in 2008. At times an ally - blunt instrument is more like it - of candidates and other times a scourge to run against, the media took its knocks, some deservedly but many just a part of the annual ritual. I used Hillary Clinton's campaign as an example of how this relationship can work and, in her case, an example of how message management can backfire if you go to the well one too many times as a casus belli of your candidacy.
03 September, 2008, Now we have a race - The Sarah Palin pick came out of the blue. She was met with tremendous skepticism and a lot of criticism from Democrats. At the convention, she answered them all and showed, at the very least, she could dish it out just as well as she could take it. Whether she will help John McCain or make a good vice-president are lingering questions we'll know more about tomorrow night - I hope tomorrow night.
25 September, 2008, John and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day - John wrote the credit crisis and the sideshow in Congressional negotiations on the 'bailout bill' made for an arguably unwinnable choice for John McCain. The alternative plan conservatives were holding out for was rubbish, he wrote, and based on distorted or outright falsehoods of economics. Ultimately, the Paulson Plan was approved but confidence was certainly shaken by a significant bi-partisan revolt.
29 September, 2008, McCain-Palin '08: Campaign First - Ever the critic of John McCain, John wrote that McCain's choice of Sarah Palin for vice-president and the campaign he's run since getting the nomination amount to a summary judgement on his judgement. McCain will not win on Election Day, John believes, precisely because his judgement has shown that he has allowed running a successful campaign to overshadow running one with integrity and honor.
21 October, 2008, Cam-Pain '08: About those promises... - Like my post 'The Audacity of Expectations,' I wrote then that both campaigns had failed to live up to their promises of clean, dignified campaigns. In particular, the use of personal attacks has become so ingrained in political campaigning that it is almost knee-jerk policy. Maybe in 2012, the incumbent and the challenger can make cutting out personal attacks, much like John McCain's legislative pork, a priority.
29 October, 2008, In defense of a friend - The day that the election hit close to home, the McCain campaign used a family friend and respected professor as an opening to hit Barack Obama on his controversial association with William Ayers, his criticised history of shady friends and the bias of the 'liberal media' against John McCain. There was no basis for the attack of Rashid Khalidi but as part of a closing argument against Obama demonstrated the desperation in the McCain campaign to gain any sort of momentum going into 4 November.
Now, get out and vote. It doesn't matter who, just exercise your right.
Footsoldiers of change
As Barack Obama and his family bear the loss of his grandmother and prepare tastefully to be elected to our nation's highest office, thousands of his young volunteers stride the neighborhoods of Pennsylvania, reminding folks to vote and offering transportation if needed to local polling stations. Similar efforts are ongoing in other battleground states as well.
On Saturday, five college students from Brooklyn, New York visited my street in Bucks County, PA. Clean, enthusiastic, articulate, polite, they had begun at dawn and would not finish their territorial canvass until 8pm. By comparison, no sign of McCain officianados anywhere, at any time this campaign despite his push in my state lately.
I have written of Obama's efficiency and reliance on planning and organization as a set-piece of his ability to govern and manage effectively. Even though polls of PA have consistently shown him ahead by seven points or more, those wearied by years of government inefficiency and mendacity will not rest until their man is in charge.
Lost to most Americans so deeply involved in the day-to-day is the overwhelming impact an Obama victory will have on the watching world at large. Foreign press corps almost equal the US corps in coverage of the race. After decades of the American dream melting away and founding ideals seeming to be lost in the shuffle of power, a young mixed race man from Chicago might restore a little faith. Organization, having one's head on straight under pressure, is a first sign of that.
John
On Saturday, five college students from Brooklyn, New York visited my street in Bucks County, PA. Clean, enthusiastic, articulate, polite, they had begun at dawn and would not finish their territorial canvass until 8pm. By comparison, no sign of McCain officianados anywhere, at any time this campaign despite his push in my state lately.
I have written of Obama's efficiency and reliance on planning and organization as a set-piece of his ability to govern and manage effectively. Even though polls of PA have consistently shown him ahead by seven points or more, those wearied by years of government inefficiency and mendacity will not rest until their man is in charge.
Lost to most Americans so deeply involved in the day-to-day is the overwhelming impact an Obama victory will have on the watching world at large. Foreign press corps almost equal the US corps in coverage of the race. After decades of the American dream melting away and founding ideals seeming to be lost in the shuffle of power, a young mixed race man from Chicago might restore a little faith. Organization, having one's head on straight under pressure, is a first sign of that.
John
Of course the other guy is wacko but they can be oh so fun
It's a week late in my discovery, sure, but does that take away any of the wit? Christopher Buckley responds on The Daily Beast in a minor tiff with brusque Rush Limbaugh. Have I ever said how I wish there were more in the punditocracy someone could argue with that have a sense of humour and don't take the game so seriously, such as Mr. Buckley and his father, among many others, sadly, no longer with us and replaced by the obtuse and deadly serious? Well, I do.
Reilly
Reilly
What's in a poll?
Repost from August 7th. The market crash, credit bubble burst and banking massacre occurred between then and now, but the numbers remain the same, if not moreso for Obama. All this talk about a closing race may turn out to be off, as were exit polls in the primaries and the 2004 election. Cell-phone using voters are skewing poll numbers too as this website by a baseball statistics analyst shows. As I've written before, Barack Obama will win by at least 8-10 points. The race was never as close as it's been presented at times.
John
The polls just don't add up
An objective review of the major pollsters' data, from Pew to Gallup, reveals the following:
Among the polls these statistics are relatively consistent as of August 1. The shaky or unreliable figures among them is the white, over 35 vote. Recently, national tracking polls show Obama leading McCain by only four points. So, where is the disconnect? Who are the voters being polled in one set of data revealing a strong Obama advantage and who are the voters indicating a tight race in daily polls?
Let's conservatively assume some numbers pollsters have bandied:
First, on Election Day 2008 135 million Americans turn out to vote, a 15 million increase over 2004.
Second, assume that some 17 million blacks, 15 million latinos, 27 million whites under 35 and some 76 million whites over 35 vote.
Third, if Obama receives a 9 to 1 margin among blacks, he earns 13.5 million of the 17 million figure. If Obama gets a 3 to 1 margin among latinos, he tallies 11.25 million out of 15 million. And if Obama gets the youth vote by 4 to 1 than he'll receive 21.6 of 27 million white, under 35 voters.
So far in this scenario, Obama earns 48.15 million votes on November 4, about 8 million shy of President Bush's 2004 re-election total. But, what about white, over 35 voters? How will 76 million other Americans decide?
With today's electronic mobility, few of the 48 million possible Obama voters rely on land-line phones, except older Americans and those unable to afford cellular or internet communication. Many of the 76 million "older" voters uncounted so far don't use cell phones at home, not nearly in the same percentage as the first 48 million, and these 76 million are the ones the pollsters admittedly reach in their surveys. So, using recent daily tracking polls let us assume that Obama receives 46% of this remaining 76 million white, over 35 vote and McCain receives 42% or 34.96 and 31.92 millions respectively. Adding up Obama's total votes out of a vote of 135 million, using the publicly available polling figures and trends of the major pollsters, we get 83.11 million (61.56%) to McCain's 51.89 (38.42%).
Regardless, the pollsters' own computations don't reflect for the general public how great the voter disparity appears to be between Obama and McCain, nor does it seem to translate the intense unhappiness with Washington, which is bipartisan but has largely spared Obama partly due to the knock by Washington insiders that he is too "inexperienced" being in federal government only since 2006. Polls, while not adding up when you put more comprehensive data side-by-side with daily tracking numbers and leave a question mark surrounding the deciding white, over 35 vote, do reflect a statistical point that McCain cannot outpoll Obama in November in today's environment. People talk about media spin and who's biased. These numbers suggest it ain't Obama the elitist liberal media is helping but McCain when the CNN's and FOX's and MSNBC's hype the day's poll showing a close race that is anything but.
John
--
The polls just don't add up
An objective review of the major pollsters' data, from Pew to Gallup, reveals the following:
- Obama is favored 2 to 1 over McCain among voters earning less than $28,000
- Blacks favor Obama 9 to 1 over McCain
- Latinos favor Obama 3 to 1 over McCain
- Whites under 35 favor Obama 4 to 1 over McCain
Among the polls these statistics are relatively consistent as of August 1. The shaky or unreliable figures among them is the white, over 35 vote. Recently, national tracking polls show Obama leading McCain by only four points. So, where is the disconnect? Who are the voters being polled in one set of data revealing a strong Obama advantage and who are the voters indicating a tight race in daily polls?
Let's conservatively assume some numbers pollsters have bandied:
First, on Election Day 2008 135 million Americans turn out to vote, a 15 million increase over 2004.
Second, assume that some 17 million blacks, 15 million latinos, 27 million whites under 35 and some 76 million whites over 35 vote.
Third, if Obama receives a 9 to 1 margin among blacks, he earns 13.5 million of the 17 million figure. If Obama gets a 3 to 1 margin among latinos, he tallies 11.25 million out of 15 million. And if Obama gets the youth vote by 4 to 1 than he'll receive 21.6 of 27 million white, under 35 voters.
So far in this scenario, Obama earns 48.15 million votes on November 4, about 8 million shy of President Bush's 2004 re-election total. But, what about white, over 35 voters? How will 76 million other Americans decide?
With today's electronic mobility, few of the 48 million possible Obama voters rely on land-line phones, except older Americans and those unable to afford cellular or internet communication. Many of the 76 million "older" voters uncounted so far don't use cell phones at home, not nearly in the same percentage as the first 48 million, and these 76 million are the ones the pollsters admittedly reach in their surveys. So, using recent daily tracking polls let us assume that Obama receives 46% of this remaining 76 million white, over 35 vote and McCain receives 42% or 34.96 and 31.92 millions respectively. Adding up Obama's total votes out of a vote of 135 million, using the publicly available polling figures and trends of the major pollsters, we get 83.11 million (61.56%) to McCain's 51.89 (38.42%).
Regardless, the pollsters' own computations don't reflect for the general public how great the voter disparity appears to be between Obama and McCain, nor does it seem to translate the intense unhappiness with Washington, which is bipartisan but has largely spared Obama partly due to the knock by Washington insiders that he is too "inexperienced" being in federal government only since 2006. Polls, while not adding up when you put more comprehensive data side-by-side with daily tracking numbers and leave a question mark surrounding the deciding white, over 35 vote, do reflect a statistical point that McCain cannot outpoll Obama in November in today's environment. People talk about media spin and who's biased. These numbers suggest it ain't Obama the elitist liberal media is helping but McCain when the CNN's and FOX's and MSNBC's hype the day's poll showing a close race that is anything but.
McCain's scattershot political attack blowback
Ken Silverstein of Harpers Magazine reports Monday that a former president of a Republican congressional organisation Senator John McCain oversaw and which granted funds to Professor Rashid Khalidi has come to the defense of the Columbia educator.
Of course the premise of the whole affair is a load of bunk; namely, that Khalidi is some kind of dangerous individual with terrorist skeletons in his closet and anti-semitic views. It's been a small pleasure to see how many disparate academics and officials have come out in support of the professor and rejected these slurs against his character. But Rashid himself said it best to the Washington Post Sunday: 'I will stick to my policy of letting this idiot wind blow over.' Indeed.
Reilly
Of course the premise of the whole affair is a load of bunk; namely, that Khalidi is some kind of dangerous individual with terrorist skeletons in his closet and anti-semitic views. It's been a small pleasure to see how many disparate academics and officials have come out in support of the professor and rejected these slurs against his character. But Rashid himself said it best to the Washington Post Sunday: 'I will stick to my policy of letting this idiot wind blow over.' Indeed.
Reilly
Saturday, November 01, 2008
Thursday, October 30, 2008
A good name goes thru the mud
The unwarranted attacks on Professor Rashid Khalidi seem to be dying down Thursday thankfully.
Time Magazine's Joe Klein writes that on CNN today - how did I miss this? - the same spokesman from the McCain campaign that made the initial complaints against the Los Angeles Times came on to discuss Prof. Khalidi and accused him, among other things, of being anti-semitic. Mr. Klein and anchor Rick Sanchez respond appropriately.
Reilly
Time Magazine's Joe Klein writes that on CNN today - how did I miss this? - the same spokesman from the McCain campaign that made the initial complaints against the Los Angeles Times came on to discuss Prof. Khalidi and accused him, among other things, of being anti-semitic. Mr. Klein and anchor Rick Sanchez respond appropriately.
Reilly
CQ's and you
PIMCO's Bill Gross writes in the November Outlook that for investors time is the only prescription for the stock market swoon. And he and John seem to think alike on what the future holds.
Reilly
Reilly
Efficiency
For those who doubt that Barack Obama is up to the task of organizing a more efficient government, I direct your attention to his campaign.
From staffing through execution, the Obama campaign is a model of efficiency, registering a record ten million new, first-time voters at the grass roots level and enlisting millions of new contributors through innovative use of the internet (last month's average donator gave just $86 dollars, together setting another monthly record).
Back in February 2007 in Springfield, Illinois, where Obama began his campaign for the White House, few gave him a shot at gaining the Democratic nomination against such heavyweights as Hillary Clinton. Barack's team, led by the two David's, Axelrod and Plouffe, knew what Vince Lombardi taught: a great ground game is essential to victory.
In the primary/caucus states that made the race official, local organizing was the key. Obama the organizer triumphed over Mrs. Clinton and her formidable operation because he "putted for dough" instead of Clinton's "drive for show."
I have written before that the race before us today is not as close as polls indicate. Well before the implosion of McCain's campaign, before Palin, before Wall Street's collapse, the economy was the key issue and those thousands on the ground for Obama knew this.
Zero negative growth in the economy did not spring up overnight. The tens of thousands of Obama volunteers readily fed voter sentiment data they heard into election headquarters. From the trenches of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina flowed voter feedback and the policy crafters Obama's team had organized turned actual sentiment into pertinent messaging from the top of the the campaign.
Patience, judgement and style backed up by facts over time overcame general popular misgivings about Barack's newness as events we are all too familiar with unfolded.
Obama did not create today's headlines but he sure had a cumulative feed that they might very well surface. Efficiency, with all the word means, should be rewarded and admired for things to come. At the very least, Obama has managed one of the best campaigns ever run by an American running for president. His will become the new gold standard of campaign organization and execution.
John
From staffing through execution, the Obama campaign is a model of efficiency, registering a record ten million new, first-time voters at the grass roots level and enlisting millions of new contributors through innovative use of the internet (last month's average donator gave just $86 dollars, together setting another monthly record).
Back in February 2007 in Springfield, Illinois, where Obama began his campaign for the White House, few gave him a shot at gaining the Democratic nomination against such heavyweights as Hillary Clinton. Barack's team, led by the two David's, Axelrod and Plouffe, knew what Vince Lombardi taught: a great ground game is essential to victory.
In the primary/caucus states that made the race official, local organizing was the key. Obama the organizer triumphed over Mrs. Clinton and her formidable operation because he "putted for dough" instead of Clinton's "drive for show."
I have written before that the race before us today is not as close as polls indicate. Well before the implosion of McCain's campaign, before Palin, before Wall Street's collapse, the economy was the key issue and those thousands on the ground for Obama knew this.
Zero negative growth in the economy did not spring up overnight. The tens of thousands of Obama volunteers readily fed voter sentiment data they heard into election headquarters. From the trenches of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina flowed voter feedback and the policy crafters Obama's team had organized turned actual sentiment into pertinent messaging from the top of the the campaign.
Patience, judgement and style backed up by facts over time overcame general popular misgivings about Barack's newness as events we are all too familiar with unfolded.
Obama did not create today's headlines but he sure had a cumulative feed that they might very well surface. Efficiency, with all the word means, should be rewarded and admired for things to come. At the very least, Obama has managed one of the best campaigns ever run by an American running for president. His will become the new gold standard of campaign organization and execution.
John
A bull examines his new partner
Worried about today's value of your investment portfolio?
Wondering where to invest next?
Calm down and simply look at what Uncle Sam is buying into with his endless buying power: preferred stocks of major banks and insurance companies.
Sam won't go broke, the current financial revaluations storm will pass, the new public/private alliance will enlarge, and the stage will offer up the beginning of a new bull market.
Over the past 60 days, the US government has invested up to $1.1 trillion in major US banks, mortgage agencies and insurers. It stands to invest more and, in return, receive warrants to purchase preferred stock.
Companies like JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and American International Group stand to be 20-80% owned by Uncle Sam, in effect becoming government agencies with all the attendant protections that implies. These companies all have publicly traded preferred stock issues, some yielding today more than 10%.
Amidst all the deafening noise about what to do, which sector to buy into, why not buy what Uncle Sam is buying? It sure won't go broke.
John
Wondering where to invest next?
Calm down and simply look at what Uncle Sam is buying into with his endless buying power: preferred stocks of major banks and insurance companies.
Sam won't go broke, the current financial revaluations storm will pass, the new public/private alliance will enlarge, and the stage will offer up the beginning of a new bull market.
Over the past 60 days, the US government has invested up to $1.1 trillion in major US banks, mortgage agencies and insurers. It stands to invest more and, in return, receive warrants to purchase preferred stock.
Companies like JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and American International Group stand to be 20-80% owned by Uncle Sam, in effect becoming government agencies with all the attendant protections that implies. These companies all have publicly traded preferred stock issues, some yielding today more than 10%.
Amidst all the deafening noise about what to do, which sector to buy into, why not buy what Uncle Sam is buying? It sure won't go broke.
John
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